Key ideas
The initial loss has a calculable baseline
With 27 possible next characters and no prior preference at initialization, the output distribut…Show moreShow less
With 27 possible next characters and no prior preference at initialization, the output distribution should be approximately uniform. Each class should therefore receive probability 1/27, producing a negative log-likelihood of about 3.29. An initial loss near 27 signals extreme, unjustified confidence rather than a difficult learning problem. Comparing observed and expected initial loss is consequently a fast initialization sanity check.
Why it matters: A network that begins near the theoretical baseline can spend its early updates learning useful structure instead of merely suppressing oversized logits.
Supporting evidence
the loss we would expect which is 3.29 much much lower than 27
Control output confidence through initialization
The output logits are computed from the hidden state, the final weight matrix, and the output bi…Show moreShow less